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Posts Tagged ‘Commodities’

A slew of information and action happening this week and last, the boys give a good run-down of the action in there Commentaries.

  • Don’t Be fooled by the Commodity Rally….. Watch the price action to confirm a breakout. Is it possible to see the dollar and ‘Stuff’ go up long term?
  • Uptick in Jobles Claims – what is up with that bro?
  • ISM is better than expected but still below 50 – which is bearish
  • Commdity Bull very, very Short term – cautious because $CRX.X, no GLD or SLV or KIWI buyers stepping in because of non-farms
  • Equities Trader are no dummies – Buying commodity stocks as a hedg for tomorrow
  • Timing of trades today seems curious
  • The TAX payer is going to be left holding the bag through inflation – Jimmie what did Countrywide tell you
  • Sara – Get back to SnR – is what you are doing repeatable, maybe it is analysis of entry setup, reuce the pip count and keep practicing, focus on few pairs.
  • George – We didn’t know – near term downtrend, RBA looking to lower rates and commodities cooling off
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ME Ok, so I failed to introduce myself and I apologize. Gmantrading is my alias, Edward Goettig is my name. No, I wasn’t a former FBI agent, (but played one often as a kid!) Trading currencies is one of my passions in life that I can enjoy and have fun and have been with the Investools for the last 4 years. Another passion of mine is technical analysis and that is why I went and attained my CMT (Certified Market Technician) designation from the MTA. So, instead of a focus on fundamentals like a CFA may be, I focus on the technicals as a CMT.

I started my career in the banking industry about 14 years ago. Before becoming a PHD-level coach for Investools, I spent several years on the trading desk for First Security Bank, NA. I also handled the bank’s solvency through the Federal Reserve Bank by actively managing a large account. My background includes experience in currencies, bonds, equities, options and futures. My trading style is more of a short term approach of things, I don’t know if it is because of my attention span or just that I feel more comfortable with the quick short move and action of the trade. Either way, that is what I do and trade. I trade mostly the majors and some crosses but stick with those items that work best for me.

That is a little about me and as a coach, I could go on and on and on. But, alas, I won’t!

~ G

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head_and_shoulders_classic_clean_dandruff_shampoo-resized200.jpg Heads up (haha) –  commodities ($CRX) could be forming a head and shoulders, which is a major reversal pattern – by the way, I plan on updating the Price Pattern section very soon, so more discussion on Heads and Shoulders there stay tuned. See how I am looking at it in the chart. I try and look at a variety of markets, but when starting out I recommend remaining focused on the pairs you’re monitoring. That said, here’s some thoughts to consider:

 

commodities.jpg If commodities make a run lower, what does that mean for currencies – specifically, pairs that have been on a good run?

What pairs are especially affected by commodities?

How do commodities fit into the grand scheme of things? (think: global economy)

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Jim Rogers is a bit odd (sorry Jim) in some ways, but a pretty sharp crayon when it comes to the markets. First off, I apologize about the crappy quality of this video, I think someone filmed their TV, yuck. But, it is timely since it is from yesterday, and he has some pretty interesting things to say about the markets. He also admits he is “horrible” at market timing, so fear not if you have some trades that have gone bad and think you’ll “never make it”!

This discussion started when some of us coaches emailed about Jim. A month ago Jim said he was selling USD, but with this caveat toward the end of an interview:

If anything, if I were a good trader, I would probably buy the dollar, because it’s probably going to have a rally. But when it rallies, I would suggest you get out of dollars.

And sure enough, Edward Goettig (one of the coaches) said Jim said yesterday that he is buying dollars, until the dollar stops rallying whereupon he’ll sell them again. I totally agree with his posture and have been thinking the same thing. Anyway, the interview:

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oil_well.jpg     Quick, what’s a technical implication of big fat round numbers (like 100)? The answer is that they often serve as support or resistance. This morning oil is at about $97/barrel.

    Here’s the deal: as oil goes higher, the dollar tends to head lower, and vice versa. So effectively the buck is near some big support. Just keep this in mind in your trades. Our EUR/USD pennant pop is puttering around some still, nothing to report there.

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So it broke to the upside today, now let’s look for this below (a retest and then continuation higher). If you didn’t get in on the break, wait for that retest before considering a buy signal.

audcad2.jpg

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Since the pair is at a little bit of support, and could either bounce or pop back up (it’s a wily pair and has got the devil in it, so good moves are to be expected), why not trade it on a short term timescale?

The chart below is on the hourly timescale. There’s some support and resistance, a channel. A break through either one would likely be a major home run on the hourly chart. Notice how bullish divergences ran before the latest pop up on the chart.

audcad1.jpg

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