Having trouble uploading the images from James’s FX pups commentary from Friday and Saturday. Working on it an will have them up asap.
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*** Fed announcement, w/ Bear Stearns, opening up Earnings next week, risk aversion pushing yen higher.
EUR/USD-finding no resistance, “where is the strong dollar policy”
½ pt/ ¾
Commodity etf’s—dbs, gld, dba, dbc.
CPI #’s (Probablly lower, off 2 for 1 sales, and saving $6.57)
Not to be mistaken or associated with the all-too well know similar title with “wild” in its heading (guys, you all know what that is all about from those late night infomercials), the euro has now hit the target on an ascending triangle formation (as seen in the below chart.) It has run and mad a 700 pip move and what a move it was!!!
Now that it has made the predicted move I am starting to see a possible pull-back down to a support level. I am not sure if it will pull back to 1.4900 or 1.5000 if it does. Currently, anything trading against the dollar seems to be the best bet to trade and may be the case for a while to come. It is hard to see this because I think the Fed and the administration wants the dollar to stay down. I like to think there is a method to their madness but for now, trading against the dollar may be the best thing for the time being.
Risk off is more pervasive than commodity highs – Buy risk aversion today which is primarily CHF/JPY, ag. commodities, currencies – then majors.
Choppiness and radicalness in commodities make it historically significant as a potential topping price action. Combine that with the Rising risk aversion and potential credit crunching of hedge funds and we in a world of hurt.
Rush for liquidity is going to move fed to act strong
Top Currency Only CTA’s are reporting < 1% return for the year. To make the top 10 list you have to be better than 1%. Top pro reporting CTA is at 13.4 % return on over a million.
Send in responses to the Steve Jobs homework – reposting link
Tie in the Steve Jobs Stanford speech to trading.
Audio commentary: http://forex.investools.com/commentary/audio.fx
You will never see anything else like this, for investors, I promise: this year’s Investools Investor Conference. In the Bellagio, mmm. I love that place. Last time we stayed there I stole the pillows because they were heavenly. Sadly, I got charged (expected) and yet they are now getting frumpy and gross. *sigh.
Anyway, this is definitely to be checked out (everyone who goes always raves about these conferences, I’ve seen it year after year! Even if it does mean you’re staying in only a ghetto version of that place we talked about last Friday…):
If you watch this pair, you may notice it’s gunning for getting below support this morning. It’s still in the area (currently at a low from mid-January), so it hasn’t breached it yet. Is it a good buy to enter a short position if it does?
This is where looking at the big picture comes in handy, and I mean big! Turns out that, looking back to 2003, if it break out to the downside we’re right at another major support level. It lasted for months, and was a major turning point from down to up. If you see a beak out over the next day or two, or whenever, watch out – I personally don’t like wondering if it will have problems going down further … I like every odd and degree of confidence I can get.
Thank you, all 64 of you, who tuned in to our webex tonight! Enjoy our blog!