What the heck is going on today? That’s rhetorical - basically what’s going on is “risk aversion”. Which means everyone has decided they’re scared and they’re running into holes all over the place. It’s jitters over the world economy.
All you need to know is that the carry trade does great when all is well, it [...]
Archive for the ‘Risk’ Category
In a carry unwind, buy the yen and franc
Posted in Australian dollar, Carry trade, Japanese yen, Risk, tagged aud, aussie, carry, Carry trade, cost of carry, forex, franc, jpy, Risk, stocks, swissy, yen on November 12, 2007 | No Comments »
Time to lock in gains for those carry trades
Posted in Carry trade, Risk, U.S. stocks, tagged carry, Carry trade, forex, Risk, stock on November 2, 2007 | No Comments »
If you haven’t done so do so now. Stocks looks like they’ll get whacked and drive most pairs for the worse today and, scarily, going forward. The carry has further downside and today may get nasty. Same stuff we’ve been talking about for week.
The Fed saves the day!
Posted in Fed, Risk, tagged ben bernanke, Fed, fed statement, federal reserve, forex, interest rates, Risk, vix, volatility index on November 1, 2007 | No Comments »
Well, Uncle Ben came through for investors and it turns out they were satisfied with the 25 basis point in interest rates. Read the statement here. And everything you want to know about the Fed is here at The Fed 101.
It seems that decent earnings over the past couple weeks and fairly strong economic data [...]
What to expect tomorrow (psst: the Fed meeting), how to trade it
Posted in Fed, Forex basics, Risk, U.S. dollar, tagged announcement, ben bernanke, dollar, Fed, fed meeting, federal reserve, forex, interest rates, rate cut, Risk on October 30, 2007 | No Comments »
Tomorrow the Fed steals the show announcing its latest decision on interest rates. Forex basics recap: high rates are good for the dollar, low bad. Low are good for stocks, and stocks still have a leadership cap on, meaning the more rate cuts the better for most currencies out there (the carry, the higher [...]
Managing uncertainty with less technical risk
Posted in British pound, Risk, Swiss franc, U.S. stocks, tagged chf, forex, franc, gbp, pound, Risk, sterling, stock, U.S. stocks on October 25, 2007 | No Comments »
When the going gets murky, put some armor on. I can’t help but feel luke-warm about some of the trends going on with U.S. stocks displaying weakness.
Sometimes my armor is reducing my position size, doing shorter term trades, or simply just trading less. You can also hedge your risk by choosing less aggressive pairs. Ones [...]
What is the VIX telling us about our FX trades?
Posted in Forex basics, Risk, U.S. stocks, tagged cboe volatility index, contrarian, vix, volatility on October 16, 2007 | No Comments »
I wanted to chip in with what Brandon said below. The CBOE Volatility Index measures implied volatility in the stock market. It is a risk-meter. When it rises, so does fear. When it falls, complacency (or greed) rises. Notice the spike in July and August and how that corresponded with carry trades imploding.
I keep [...]
