It has been a week now since the Bear Stearns collapse and the Federal Reserve decision to bail them out and lower rates by 75 basis points. Now what??? We see that Oil is starting to head back up and that the rally that we had in the markets were short and sweet. The dollar [...]
Archive for the ‘Fed’ Category
The After Fed Effect
Posted in Economics, Fed, tagged ben bernanke, dollar, federal reserve, usd on March 26, 2008 | No Comments »
While you were sleeping!!
Posted in Carry trade, Commodities, ECB, Economics, Euro, Fed, Gold, Japanese yen, U.S. dollar, tagged ben bernanke, Carry trade, dollar, economy, Euro, Federal Resereve, interest rate, rate cut, usd, yen on March 17, 2008 | 1 Comment »
Well, maybe while you were getting ready for bed. The Federal Reserve Bank decided to make an emergency move this evening and cut the bank lending rate to 3.25 percent from the 3.50 percent it was at earlier. This move made by the Fed was meant to “try” and create some stability in the financial [...]
Year-end in review
Posted in Australian dollar, British pound, Canadian dollar, Carry trade, Commodities, Fed, Japanese yen, New Zealand dollar, Swiss franc, U.S. dollar, tagged comparison, currencies, forex, year in review on December 26, 2007 | No Comments »
Here is the year in review as a comparison chart (left, click to enlarge) comparing the major currencies, in this case versus the euro. The worst performing currencies, the USD and GBP, were down about 9% vs. the euro. The best, the loonie, was up about 9%%.
What happened this year?
The year had a lot [...]
The Fed disappointeth
Posted in Fed, tagged Fed, forex, rates on December 12, 2007 | No Comments »
They simply did not drop rates quite as much as many were hoping, today.
This hit the carry trade hard. The yen and franc rebounded, as did bonds. Part of this is surely the disappointment that the Fed isn’t doing “more” to help the U.S. economy. Worry over the [...]
Tune in to Friday’s audio commentary
Posted in Fed, tagged Audio commentary, Fed, forex, non-farm payroll, volatility on December 7, 2007 | 1 Comment »
If you missed out on yesterday’s audio commentary, tune to listen to special guest Todd Granthem to talk about trading the current volatility in the markets.
Today, we are discussing the implications of the non-farm payroll numbers and what it means for the Fed and your currency trades. Successful [...]
5 min run-down on commodities, Fed, USD etc from Jim Rogers
Posted in Commodities, Fed, Oil, U.S. stocks, tagged Commodities, dollar, Fed, federal reserve, forex, interview, jim rogers, Oil, usd on December 5, 2007 | No Comments »
Jim Rogers is a bit odd (sorry Jim) in some ways, but a pretty sharp crayon when it comes to the markets. First off, I apologize about the crappy quality of this video, I think someone filmed their TV, yuck. But, it is timely since it is from yesterday, and he has some pretty interesting [...]
Perhaps the ECB will do … nothing?
Posted in ECB, Euro, Fed, U.S. dollar, tagged dollar, ECB, eur, Euro, european central bank, forex, interest rates, rates, usd on November 30, 2007 | No Comments »
As the ECB is due to announce its decision on interest rates, the central bankers face on of the biggest dilemmas. To do it or not?
On one side is the pro-inflation factor of the growing petrol prices, as the inflation in the eurozone reached 3% in the November. [...]
Fed be nimble, Fed be quick
Posted in Fed, U.S. stocks, tagged Fed, forex, interest rates, kohn, rate cut, stocks on November 28, 2007 | No Comments »
The Fed (VP Donald Kohn) said today that they would be using
“(these uncertainties require) flexible and pragmatic policymaking — nimble is the adjective I used a few weeks ago.”
and carry trades got a shot in the arm as stocks jumped - no matter that durable goods and housing data came in wimpy, all is [...]
What’s up with the buck??
Posted in China, Euro, Fed, U.S. dollar, tagged $dxy, alan greenspan, bonds, China, chinese, credit crisis, dollar, dollar going up in smoke ..., dollar index, eur, Euro, Fed, forex, george soros, lacker, usd, volatility on November 7, 2007 | No Comments »
A student emailed in and asked:
Hey Michael - I was just curious, why did the $DXY take such a dive yesterday? I’m still trying to keep straight what moves with/leads/follows what.
The $DXY is the dollar index. Basically, an average price of the dollar versus many major currencies, not just the euro, pound, [...]
Maybe the Fed wasn’t such great news after all …
Posted in British pound, Carry trade, Fed, Japanese yen, U.S. stocks, tagged pound, yen, jpy, gbp, Fed, forex, U.S. stocks, gbp/jpy, sotcks, divergence, fed announcement on November 2, 2007 | No Comments »
Stocks cratered in today with a resounding thump as investors got thinking about no more rate cuts (per interpretation of the announcement.)
It looks like they may be making lower highs and lows - the Zig Zag indicator is trying to show that objectively. For sure the uptrend is interrupted again. We’ve talked here about stocks [...]
The Fed saves the day!
Posted in Fed, Risk, tagged ben bernanke, Fed, fed statement, federal reserve, forex, interest rates, Risk, vix, volatility index on November 1, 2007 | No Comments »
Well, Uncle Ben came through for investors and it turns out they were satisfied with the 25 basis point in interest rates. Read the statement here. And everything you want to know about the Fed is here at The Fed 101.
It seems that decent earnings over the past couple weeks and fairly strong economic data [...]
What to expect tomorrow (psst: the Fed meeting), how to trade it
Posted in Fed, Forex basics, Risk, U.S. dollar, tagged announcement, ben bernanke, dollar, Fed, fed meeting, federal reserve, forex, interest rates, rate cut, Risk on October 30, 2007 | No Comments »
Tomorrow the Fed steals the show announcing its latest decision on interest rates. Forex basics recap: high rates are good for the dollar, low bad. Low are good for stocks, and stocks still have a leadership cap on, meaning the more rate cuts the better for most currencies out there (the carry, the higher [...]
EUR/USD raises a flag
Posted in ECB, Euro, Fed, U.S. dollar, tagged dollar, eur, Euro, flag, forex, price pattern, trichet, usd on October 9, 2007 | No Comments »
It’s been fun to watch the EUR/USD: weeks ago we talked in the Daily Commentary about its trendline bounce up; more recently it surprised me as it broke through rising resistance, and now possibly a flag on the way to a support bounce. There’s a big maybe there, nothing is set in stone but that’s [...]
Housing: the gift that keeps giving
Posted in Fed, U.S. dollar, tagged Fed, usd on October 2, 2007 | No Comments »
Pimco bond legend Bill Gross mentioned today how he thinks the housing mess will be at the focus of Fed decisions for years to come. Yuck, but hurray for stocks (sorry dollar). And hurray for currencies which are correlating with stocks. Mr. Gross’s monthly newsletter is here. Here’s a snippet:
PIMCO’s view is that a [...]
Monday’s InvestoolsFX audio commentary
Posted in Audio commentary, Australian dollar, Commodities, Economics, Euro, Fed, Japanese yen, Price patterns, U.S. dollar on April 14, 2008 | No Comments »
Monday 04/14/08
Currency trading end of last week into this week is like the Abbet and Costello “Who is on first and what’s on second” bit, confusing and violent.
G7 Language was purposefully vague not referencing China’s currency but general currency fluctuations- market tried to anticipate intervention action which caused more violent price action overnight and through [...]
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