Well, maybe while you were getting ready for bed. The Federal Reserve Bank decided to make an emergency move this evening and cut the bank lending rate to 3.25 percent from the 3.50 percent it was at earlier. This move made by the Fed was meant to “try” and create some stability in the financial [...]
Archive for the ‘Carry trade’ Category
While you were sleeping!!
Posted in Carry trade, Commodities, ECB, Economics, Euro, Fed, Gold, Japanese yen, U.S. dollar, tagged ben bernanke, Carry trade, dollar, economy, Euro, Federal Resereve, interest rate, rate cut, usd, yen on March 17, 2008 | 1 Comment »
Intermarket analysis: today’s US stocks vs GBP/JPY
Posted in British pound, Carry trade, Japanese yen, Price patterns, tagged Carry trade, feedback cycle, forex, gbp, gbp/jpy, jpy, pennant, pound, price pattern, stocks, yen on January 14, 2008 | 2 Comments »
Today is the first day I look at the S&P500 ($SPX) - representing the average of US stocks - and think “this may be a pennant”. If I can get a triangle shape out of short term support and resistance, it’s a pennant. And price coiling like this at support is pretty threatening to [...]
GBP/JPY, hourly chart, what I’d like to see
Posted in British pound, Carry trade, Japanese yen, Price patterns, tagged pound, yen, jpy, gbp, price pattern, forex, flag, Carry trade, interest, gbp/jpy, cci, commodity channel index, reject the zero, rejecting the zero on January 3, 2008 | No Comments »
Now that the pair trounced the bulls with a bone-crunching thud, what next? After a nice consolidation that looked pretty flag-like (on a short term timescale), it broke lower some more overnight. It fell a few hundred more pips (!) and has now retraced back up to where it broke out from.
Looked at on [...]
Year-end in review
Posted in Australian dollar, British pound, Canadian dollar, Carry trade, Commodities, Fed, Japanese yen, New Zealand dollar, Swiss franc, U.S. dollar, tagged comparison, currencies, forex, year in review on December 26, 2007 | No Comments »
Here is the year in review as a comparison chart (left, click to enlarge) comparing the major currencies, in this case versus the euro. The worst performing currencies, the USD and GBP, were down about 9% vs. the euro. The best, the loonie, was up about 9%%.
What happened this year?
The year had a lot [...]
Where’s the smart money? Stocks? No, in currencies
Posted in Carry trade, U.S. stocks, tagged carry, forex, Carry trade, stock, U.S. stocks, Risk, divergence, leadership on November 12, 2007 | 1 Comment »
We’ve talked a bit here and on the Investools FX website (I know David Settle has talked a bunch about it) over the past couple months how carry currencies haven’t risen to their same highs as stocks did when they both rebounded in the last couple months. Basically, stocks were getting giddy, carrys [...]
In a carry unwind, buy the yen and franc
Posted in Australian dollar, Carry trade, Japanese yen, Risk, tagged aud, aussie, carry, Carry trade, cost of carry, forex, franc, jpy, Risk, stocks, swissy, yen on November 12, 2007 | No Comments »
What the heck is going on today? That’s rhetorical - basically what’s going on is “risk aversion”. Which means everyone has decided they’re scared and they’re running into holes all over the place. It’s jitters over the world economy.
All you need to know is that the carry trade does great when all is well, it [...]
Time to lock in gains for those carry trades
Posted in Carry trade, Risk, U.S. stocks, tagged carry, Carry trade, forex, Risk, stock on November 2, 2007 | No Comments »
If you haven’t done so do so now. Stocks looks like they’ll get whacked and drive most pairs for the worse today and, scarily, going forward. The carry has further downside and today may get nasty. Same stuff we’ve been talking about for week.
Maybe the Fed wasn’t such great news after all …
Posted in British pound, Carry trade, Fed, Japanese yen, U.S. stocks, tagged pound, yen, jpy, gbp, Fed, forex, U.S. stocks, gbp/jpy, sotcks, divergence, fed announcement on November 2, 2007 | No Comments »
Stocks cratered in today with a resounding thump as investors got thinking about no more rate cuts (per interpretation of the announcement.)
It looks like they may be making lower highs and lows - the Zig Zag indicator is trying to show that objectively. For sure the uptrend is interrupted again. We’ve talked here about stocks [...]
Swissies at top of World Bank’s rule-of-law index
Posted in Carry trade, Swiss franc, U.S. dollar, tagged carry, dollar, usd, chf, forex, swissy, franc, Carry trade, wealth, world bank, intermarket analysis, interest on October 28, 2007 | No Comments »
Revisiting “The Secrets of Intangible Wealth, ” and what I’ve been hammering on about franc valuation (under valued and destined for the stars when carrys unwind) and the future of the USD/CHF (down, down, down): notice that the World Bank ranked Switzerland tops in regards to wealth (intangible.) The swissy’s been held down for [...]
A carry comparison
Posted in Australian dollar, British pound, Canadian dollar, Carry trade, Japanese yen, New Zealand dollar, tagged aud, aussie, cad, carry, Carry trade, dollar, eur, Euro, forex, gbp, jpy, kiwi, loonie, nzd, pound, yen on October 22, 2007 | No Comments »
Here’s a real quick comp chart to (continually) pound home what I said a few posts ago - if you’re still focused on the GBP/JPY knock it off! Stop it, scram, basta. There are much better pairs to trade for both interest and capital appreciation. As is displayed below (black GBP/JPY is second from bottom) [...]
Anybody shocked currencies are dropping? I’m not, here’s why:
Posted in Carry trade, U.S. stocks, tagged carry, Carry trade, earnings, forex, google, resistance, stocks, u.s. on October 19, 2007 | 1 Comment »
I’ve been pounding this drum for weeks. I even wrote an article on it a couple weeks ago in our Technical Commentary. Most currencies are positively correlated with U.S. stocks right now, and U.S. stocks look scaaaaary.
Basically they are overbought, on scant good fundamental news (ahem, bubble) and at LONG-TERM RESISTANCE. Watch out! That said, [...]
What is market “liquidity” anyway?
Posted in Carry trade, Forex basics, tagged bank of japan, carry, Carry trade, forex, liquidity on October 19, 2007 | No Comments »
A quick mention of what this is since we brought it up below. Wikipedia has a nice definition of liquidity as we mean it:
The essential characteristic of a liquid market is that there are ready and willing buyers and sellers at all times
With the Bank of Japan keeping rates soooooo low, investors can borrow [...]
