Here’s an interesting idea for the AUD/CAD - which you’ll notice is in a great uptrend. There’s an opportunity for a bullish breakout soon. But stepping back, to a 5-year chart, notice the story of fibonacci.
What do do??
Let’s consider Fibonacci retracements. Fibonacci lines are drawn from the bottom to the top of a major [...]
Archive for the ‘Australian dollar’ Category
Fibs, fading and the AUD/CAD
Posted in Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, tagged aud/cad, fading, fibonacci on March 6, 2008 | No Comments »
If a channel breaks out, it goes where?
Posted in Australian dollar, Euro, tagged aussie, channel, Euro, resistance, support on February 13, 2008 | No Comments »
Despite my reservations about going short the euro, the EUR/AUD breakout we looked at had legs. A few hundred pips worth of legs. It’s a good reminder of a technical analysis principle some of you may not know. When price is in a channel (support and resistance running parallel) and breaks out - either [...]
Nix the AUD/JPY candle reversal - aussie busts a move!
Posted in Australian dollar, Euro, Japanese yen, U.S. dollar, tagged aud, aussie, australia, forex on February 4, 2008 | No Comments »
The hunt for a reversal candle came up empty. Rather, the AUD/JPY broke out to the topside. Wow! Technically this is a power move. But I’m leery of it because of my bearish posture toward global economic fundamentals.
The breakout also happens on the EUR/AUD and that looks cool too, but yikes, trading bearish [...]
Doesn’t the Fed know about resistance?!
Posted in Australian dollar, Euro, Japanese yen, U.S. dollar, tagged Fed, forex, interest rates on January 31, 2008 | 2 Comments »
The scoop on the Fed is that they lowered rates 0.50% and said more were to come. Obviously that is bearish for the dollar and can be bullish for carry trades too since it is a balm for economic pain. Were it so simple to “fix” economies. Yesterday afternoon U.S. stocks sunk as bad [...]
Candle hunting on AUD/JPY
Posted in Australian dollar, Candles, Japanese yen, tagged aud, aussie, buy signals, candle patterns, evening star, forex, hammer, harami, jpy, yen on January 30, 2008 | No Comments »
Candle hunting sounds like some sort of freaky hobby, when really we’re talking about looking for candle patterns.
The AUD/JPY has had a couple in recent bearish bounces.
First off, to be clear, the trend is down and that’s the mood we want to be in here (… not down, but bearish) Name of the [...]
Recurring patterns, now on the EUR/AUD
Posted in Australian dollar, Euro, tagged aud, aussie, breakout, eur, eur/aud, Euro, forex on December 31, 2007 | No Comments »
Anyone remember how we had looked at some recurring patterns on the CAD/JPY, a few weeks ago? The EUR/AUD is doing it too. Let’s see if we get a repeat performance - although the CAD/JPY got the smack-down today and that run is over. Unsurprisingly the EUR/AUD’s major tops and bottoms align in the [...]
Year-end in review
Posted in Australian dollar, British pound, Canadian dollar, Carry trade, Commodities, Fed, Japanese yen, New Zealand dollar, Swiss franc, U.S. dollar, tagged comparison, currencies, forex, year in review on December 26, 2007 | No Comments »
Here is the year in review as a comparison chart (left, click to enlarge) comparing the major currencies, in this case versus the euro. The worst performing currencies, the USD and GBP, were down about 9% vs. the euro. The best, the loonie, was up about 9%%.
What happened this year?
The year had a lot [...]
Putting AUD/NZD’s dub top to rest
Posted in Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Price patterns, tagged aud, aussie, double top, forex, kiwi, moving average, nzd, price pattern, support on December 13, 2007 | No Comments »
Remember how we looked at this pair’s double top? (which portends a downward movement) I chickened out on the thing and never liked the set-up. Well, it completed it’s double top target yesterday (!@#$%& it anyway, it’s made a few hundred pips since we’ve been talking about it). It goes to show that despite [...]
Wrapping up the week looking at the big picture
Posted in Australian dollar, British pound, Canadian dollar, Japanese yen, New Zealand dollar, Swiss franc, U.S. dollar, tagged comparison chart, forex, relative performance, relative strength on December 7, 2007 | No Comments »
It’s always a good idea to regularly look at the “big picture.” One suggestion is to run a relative strength analysis, which is a common method in technical analysis. Basically, bring up the EUR/USD and then in Chart Settings, type in the other EUR based pairs in Comparison Chart, one by one. This compares [...]
Updating the AUD/NZD
Posted in Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Price patterns, tagged aud, aussie, double top, forex, kiwi, moving average, nzd, price pattern, support on December 6, 2007 | No Comments »
Last seen this pair was busting down from a double top. I think it makes a fine example of how price patterns aren’t magical and, like everything else, should be taken with a grain of salt.
Granted, when you see one it is a little exciting, in a sense. But price patterns work out maybe [...]
AUD/NZD double top and its 200 day MA
Posted in Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Price patterns, tagged aud, aussie, double top, forex, kiwi, nzd, pice patterns on November 29, 2007 | 1 Comment »
The pair definitively jabbed thru its double top support a few days ago. Yes its a double top, be ye not fooled by its hunchbackedness. The question is whether to get in short now (if you didn’t already).
It feels like it’s gone a bit far for a retest of old support, but then, it does [...]
Tune in to Monday’s audio commentary
Posted in Audio commentary, Australian dollar, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, tagged australia, chf, China, forex, franc, jpy, yn on November 27, 2007 | No Comments »
Today on InvestoolsFX Audio:
China to allow sovereign investment in Japan, and how will a new political party in Australia affect the Aussie? The JPY and CHF dominate the relative strength charts … what does this mean for you trading? And, a principle that has made me a good currency [...]
The week at a glance
Posted in Australian dollar, British pound, Canadian dollar, Euro, Japanese yen, New Zealand dollar, Swiss franc, U.S. dollar, tagged aud, aussie, cad, chf, dollar, eur, Euro, forex, franc, gbp, kiwi, loonie, nzd, pound, swissy, usd, week summary on November 16, 2007 | No Comments »
In an effort to help you prep for the week ahead, here’s a quick glance at who did best - and worst - for the week. It’s a good idea to stay on top of this so that you know which currencies to avoid and which to look for opportunities in.
Notes that these [...]
That crazy loonie!
Posted in Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, Euro, Japanese yen, U.S. dollar, tagged aud, cad, Canadian dollar, dollar, Euro, forex, loonie, Risk, usd, yen on November 15, 2007 | No Comments »
The farthest to rise has been one of the farthest to fall in the last week. So loonie! What is going on??
A couple things:
#1: People are freaking out over how high the Canadian dollar is getting. I would too if 3/4 of my exports went [...]
Monday’s InvestoolsFX audio commentary
Posted in Audio commentary, Australian dollar, Commodities, Economics, Euro, Fed, Japanese yen, Price patterns, U.S. dollar on April 14, 2008 | No Comments »
Monday 04/14/08
Currency trading end of last week into this week is like the Abbet and Costello “Who is on first and what’s on second” bit, confusing and violent.
G7 Language was purposefully vague not referencing China’s currency but general currency fluctuations- market tried to anticipate intervention action which caused more violent price action overnight and through [...]
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