The scoop on the Fed is that they lowered rates 0.50% and said more were to come. Obviously that is bearish for the dollar and can be bullish for carry trades too since it is a balm for economic pain. Were it so simple to “fix” economies. Yesterday afternoon U.S. stocks sunk as bad [...]
Archive for January, 2008
Doesn’t the Fed know about resistance?!
Posted in Australian dollar, Euro, Japanese yen, U.S. dollar, tagged Fed, forex, interest rates on January 31, 2008 | 2 Comments »
Candle hunting on AUD/JPY
Posted in Australian dollar, Candles, Japanese yen, tagged aud, aussie, buy signals, candle patterns, evening star, forex, hammer, harami, jpy, yen on January 30, 2008 | Leave a Comment »
Candle hunting sounds like some sort of freaky hobby, when really we’re talking about looking for candle patterns.
The AUD/JPY has had a couple in recent bearish bounces.
First off, to be clear, the trend is down and that’s the mood we want to be in here (… not down, but bearish) Name of the [...]
Anyone remember this pair?
Posted in British pound, Czech Koruna, tagged channel, forex on January 28, 2008 | Leave a Comment »
We’ve talked about it – all hail the Koruna, right? Still doing its thing. On the left, below is the chart as I’ve had it drawn out for months now. I thought it might help some to see how I made a subtle change to my chart to account for some recent price action.
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The big picture
Posted in British pound, Canadian dollar, Euro, Japanese yen, tagged comparison, forex, george soros, stocks on January 28, 2008 | 1 Comment »
Well, here’s to a new week! An excellent way to start out is spending a moment on the “big picture.”
Technically the euro remains strong, the pound and loonie weak, and the yen has been gaining strength. The comparison chart on the left illustrates this nicely.
Fundamentally nothing has changed – there is trouble, and trouble [...]
Tune in to Thursday’s audio commentary
Posted in Audio commentary, tagged Audio commentary, forex on January 25, 2008 | Leave a Comment »
Gold topping $900 commodities up while $ tanks.
Societe SA 7.2 bil loss and the huge losses over the weekend is the unwinding of that trade, possibly? Who is he, is he still alive? http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aTNMJaurCbB8&refer=home
Commodities up as dollar goes down – what pairs to trade.
Euro goes up on ECB’s Weber confirming no rate cut.
Psychology with Pat [...]
Back to business: sidestepping the EUR/USD
Posted in Euro, Price patterns, U.S. dollar, tagged dollar, double top, eur, eur/usd, Euro, forex, usd on January 25, 2008 | 3 Comments »
The recent turmoil we’ve seen in stocks, the fears of recession, then the bounce back … they’ve taken their toll on EUR/USD. The euro, riding a wave of optimism over the economic strength of the eurozone, has stalled. It’s seen in the two peaks the pair made in November and this month: instead of [...]
No time!
Posted in Uncategorized on January 21, 2008 | 4 Comments »
Sorry gang, I’ve been preparing a discussion to give our stocks/options student tonight via webex and it’s consumed me all day. All I can say is the name of the game is risk-aversion right now. It’s all about the JPY and CHF and I hope you got in on that GBP/JPY after all the yammering [...]
Peering a bit under EUR/USD’s hood
Posted in Euro, Swiss franc, U.S. dollar, U.S. stocks, tagged chf, dollar, dollar weakness, eur, Euro, forex, franc, stocks, strength, usd on January 18, 2008 | Leave a Comment »
So the EUR/USD super trend has stalled. Will it regain its pace?
It’s in murky waters. The dollar is, without a doubt, weak. Evidence is seen on $TNX – as it falls, 10 years yields (rates) are falling, which hurts the buck. And the buck is already hurting.
In the chart, notice how as EUR/USD rises [...]
Political jokes
Posted in Funny, tagged forex, political jokes on January 18, 2008 | Leave a Comment »
Brandon Chapman (you know, one of the FX coaches) emailed the following, pretty funny:
Nice to see that the politicians setting policy are as informed as, uh…… You fill in the blank.
Wall Street Chuckles Over Kaptur/Bernanke “Confusion”
Posted By:Bob Pisani
Topics:Federal Reserve | Congress | Ben Bernanke | Investment Strategy [...]
Expect a little wackiness today
Posted in Uncategorized, tagged forex, liquidity, martin luther king day on January 18, 2008 | Leave a Comment »
Remember that Monday is a holiday – Martin Luther King day – and that liquidity will dry up as the afernoon goes on. Also, there is basically no news from here on out for the day on the economic calendar. Options expire for stocks today, which will also produce odd moves in stocks. Summed up: [...]
Triple top hourly GBP/JPY
Posted in British pound, Japanese yen, Price patterns, U.S. stocks, tagged dow, forex, gbp, gbp/jpy, jpy, pound, s&p 500, stocks, triple top, yen on January 17, 2008 | 1 Comment »
After the carnage in stocks today (more later), the GBP/JPY is eyeing the downside again. If you traded the pair on the hourly chart, you were stopped out in the last few days. But oh, what a run! And if you gave back too much in gains, time to devise an exit strategy that [...]
Intermarket analysis: today’s US stocks vs GBP/JPY
Posted in British pound, Carry trade, Japanese yen, Price patterns, tagged Carry trade, feedback cycle, forex, gbp, gbp/jpy, jpy, pennant, pound, price pattern, stocks, yen on January 14, 2008 | 2 Comments »
Today is the first day I look at the S&P500 ($SPX) – representing the average of US stocks – and think “this may be a pennant”. If I can get a triangle shape out of short term support and resistance, it’s a pennant. And price coiling like this at support is pretty threatening to [...]
3 currency pairs to keep keeping an eye on
Posted in British pound, Czech Koruna, Euro, Japanese yen, U.S. dollar, tagged eur/usd, forex, gbp/czk, gbp/jpy on January 11, 2008 | Leave a Comment »
We’ve been talking about these so don’t forget about them, these are 3 great trending pairs that are entrenched in money-making mode (in the direction of the arrow on the chart, I made it clear if it wasn’t obvious), so simply look for signals to get in – don’t just get in any ol’ time [...]
Tune in to Friday’s audio commentary
Posted in Audio commentary, tagged Audio commentary, forex on January 26, 2008 | Leave a Comment »
Jerome Kerviel seems to be hiding sub-prime losses. He is the winner! For the biggest loser…
Friday is gold aussie up day. DBA and DBC bouncing this bodes well for Commodity currencies
More discussion on how well things are going at InvestoolsFX.
What role the Fed announcement plays into analysis
Looking at the EUR/GBP, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, waiting for [...]
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